Beep币扑 Plan B第六期：2020加密市场-Kyle，你怎么看？

主题：What to expect from crypto market in 2020? Kyle，你怎么看？
时间：1月17日，午12点
分享嘉宾：Kyle Samani，Multicoin Capital联合创始人
主持人：Kara，Beep币扑联合创始人
拷问团：陈威廉，社区KOL；巴韭特，巴韭特社区主理人；Timmy Yang，独立投资人

Plan B：Beep重磅打造的一档原生大V对话区块链大咖的线上AMA节目

导语：比特币减半，ETH2.0上线，Libra能否如期推出钱包？2020年注定会是加密货币行业里程碑的一年。关于2020年加密货币领域，你想知道的，你不能错过的，都在这里了！

1月17日中午12点，Multicoin Capital的联合创始人，Kyle Samani将做客Beep币扑Plan B第六期———What to expect from crypto market in 2020? Kyle，你怎么看？

Multicoin是一家理论驱动的加密基金，投资重塑全球经济所有领域的代币和公司。自2017年创立以来，Multicoin Capital凭借着其前瞻性和独到的眼光，投资了Bakkt、Dfinity、Dfuse、Solona等优质项目。

问题一：您能简单介绍下自己和Multicoin Captial吗？

Could you please make a brief introduction of yourself and Multicoin Capital?

答：Multicoin Capital是一家专注于加密货币的投资公司。奥斯汀，纽约市，洛杉矶和北京都有我们的工作人员。公司通过对冲基金和风险基金两种模式管理超过1亿美元的资金：。

我是Multicoin的联合创始人兼管理合伙人。我大部分时间都专注于公共和私人投资市场上。

Multicoin Capital is an investment firm based in Austin, New York City, Los Angeles, and Beijing that invests exclusively in crypto. The firm manages more than $100M across two vehicles: a hedge fund and a venture fund.

I’m a cofounder and Managing Partner at Multicoin. I spend most of my time focused on investments, both in public and private markets.

问题二：为了今天的AMA，我也做了点小功课。发现您从纽约大学毕业之后，就去创办了您的第一家公司，一个医疗健康领域的初创公司，Pristine。我也知道您大学的专业是金融管理，所以您选择投资行业作为后来的职业发展也并不奇怪，但为什么您会选择区块链和加密货币这个赛道呢？

答：我在2016年初发现了以太坊，这是促使我进入加密行业的原因。鉴于我在金融和技术领域的背景，我对智能合约着迷，并确信它们将成为我们有生之年最重要的技术之一。在2016年的整个过程中，我花了越来越多的时间关注加密行业，直到它占据了我最主要的精力和时间，最终，在2017年5月，Tushar和我决定创办Multicoin，后来在2017年10月1日正式运营。

I discovered Ethereum in early 2016, and that’s what pulled me into crypto. Given my background in finance and technology, I became fascinated with smart contracts, and became convinced they were going to be one of the most important technologies of our lifetime. Over the course of 2016, I spent an increasing percentage of my time in crypto, until I realized I couldn’t think about anything else. Ultimately, Tushar and I decided to launch Multicoin in May of 2017, and the fund went live on October 1, 2017.

问题2.1:现在看来选择加密行业很明智，那时候没有什么声音阻止你这样做吗？

It seems like a wise choice now. But was there any voice that ever made you hesitate to devoted into the crypto industry?

答：几乎是所有人，大概90%我的朋友和家人都认为去成立一个加密基金是一个不好的想法，没有人认为会成功。

Yes… literally everyone. Probably 90% of my friends and family thought it was a very bad idea to launch a crypto fund. No one thought it would work ????

问题三: Multicoin投资的项目，真的都是行业内很优质的。这是怎么做到的呢？有什么挑选优质项目的策略嘛？Multicoin会更关注什么方向吗？

Multicoin’s portfolio is really impressing. The projects you invest always have real great performance. What’s the trick in it? What’s the strategy to pick a good project? And which directions Multicoin Capital would prefer?

答：这件事没有窍门。而且我们的命中率也不是100％。

我们只是将所有时间都花在阅读，学习和理解正在发生的事情上。我们会尽力利用它来弄清楚事情的发展方向，并据此进行投资。我们时对时错。

There’s no trick. And our hit rate is not 100%.

We just spend all of our time reading, learning, and understanding what’s going on. We do our best to leverage that to figure out where things are going, and we make investment accordingly. Sometimes we’re right, sometimes we’re wrong.

**问题四： 我注意到multicoin capital目前投的项目中，只有SKALE是layer2相关的。所以关于扩容方案，layer2，plasma，layer0，或其他解决方案，你更看好哪一种？你们在2019预测中提到闪电网络不会像大家期望中的那么流行，你现在还这样想吗？ **

Among the portfolio of Multicoin Capital, I found the only layer 2 project, SKALE. So when it comes to scaling, layer 2, plasma, layer 0, or what else solution excites you the most? You guys’ve mentioned in the 2019 prediction that LN won’t be as popular as expected, you still hold that opinion?

答：在Layer2扩容方案中，我们最看好Skale。他们扩展方面杰出的团队建设者，他们会在不久的将来与一些合作伙伴一起上线。

在闪电网络方面，我们正在尝试弄清楚它如何扩容，但我们还没有确信它可以。但是，有很多聪明的人正在研究它，我们将持续跟进闪电生态系统，以寻找独特的投资机会。

现在，在金融系统中，没有渠道的概念。任何人都可以随时在所有参与者之间转移资金。资金流转是没有障碍的。但是在“闪电”愿景中，资金被困于渠道中。我发现很难相信，金融体系将从流转畅通演变成有阻碍的转移之中。

In terms of layer 2 scaling solutions, we are most excited about Skale. They are the pre-eminent team building in the space, and they’re about to launch in the very near future with some exciting launch partners.

In terms of lightning, we are trying to figure out how it can scale, and we are not yet convinced that it can. However, there are a lot of smart people working on it, and we continue to monitor the lightning ecosystem to look for unique investment opportunities.

Today, the financial system is one in which there is not a notion of channels. Today, anyone can move money between all participants at any time. Money is not encumbered. In the Lightning vision, money is encumbered in channels. I find it very hard to believe that the financial system will transition from one of no encumbrance to one based on encumbrance.

问题4.1:所以Skale跟其他layer2的项目有什么不同？能给我们简单讲一下吗？

So what makes Skale different from other layer2 project? Do you mind to ellobrate it a little?

答：SKALE有几个主要的区别。
1）这将是第一个重要的第2层网络发布。 非常非常接近发布时间了。
2）Skale使用BLS汇总技术，该技术甚至比最近的被看好的技术要更加优秀。
3）Skale团队不仅在推出扩容技术，而且还在开发整个产品套件和集成以使其在以太坊生态系统中可以无缝运行。

SKALE has a few major differentiators.

问题五： 我们来聊一聊2020年的市场吧。比特币减半很快就要到了，BSV近几天的暴涨好像瞬间焕活了市场。我还注意到，你1月5日在twitter上连发了17条比特币减半相关的推文。所以，关于2020年市场行情，你怎么看呢？

Let’s talk about the crypto market of 2020. As is known to us all, the bitcoin halving is on its way. Especially with BSV’s big pump theses days, the whole market seem to come alive all of a sudden. Besides, You seemed to have a lot to share since I found that you consistently posted 17 twitters to share your opinions on Bitcoin halving on Jan, 5th. How would you think the market will go in 2020?

答：We are excited for the halvening and what it means for Bitcoin (less selling pressure)!

In general, I think we are going to hit peak Bitcoin maximalism this year, and that interest and excitement will return to high qualty alt coins.
我们对减半及其对比特币的意义（降低售卖压力）而感到兴奋！总的来说，我们认为比特币今年会达到峰值，并且这种兴奋和兴趣会引发山寨币的高潮。

问题六：人们都在说在减半前币价会上涨起来，但减半的时候也不会有太大变动，甚至减半时还会下跌，减半后更甚。当这一系列涨跌结束后，2021年才会真的迎来牛市，对于这个观点，你怎么看呢？

People are talking about the market will go up before the halving and won’t change much or even drop during the halving and then drop even more after the halving, then the real big bull will come in 2021. do you believe this theory?

答：对于走势的预测有很多，什么都是有可能发生的！
我们花时间研究数据以了解市场情况，并据此对投资组合进行定位。

有5-10个观点来论述价格的上涨和下跌，但是，如果没有对数据做深入分析，很难判断哪一种观点是正确的。我们也不确定未来会发生什么，我们只看数据说话。

There are lots of theories out there. Anything can happen!
We spend our time examining the data to understand what’s going on in the market, and position the portfolio accordingly.

There are 5-10 solid theories about how the price will react going into and coming out of the halvening. However, it’s very difficult to tell which theory is actually playing out without deep analysis of the data.

We dont’ have any real opinions about what will happen. We are just looking at the data

问题七：我发现twitter上有一张图标注了近期比特币价格的一些拐点，正好时间是与美伊问题重合的。你是否认为比特币价格和美伊问题相关呢？

I find that very interesting. A pic from twitter highlight some turnings on bitcoin price these days, which coincides with the specific timing related to U.S. and Iran issue. How do you see the connection between bitcoin price and tension among U.S. and Iran?

答：极少量的数据表明，地缘政治不稳定（例如伊朗）与比特币之间存在因果正相关。但是，没有足够的数据得出任何明确的结论。我不是这些问题的专家，所以我只研究可用的数据。而且我们只是没有足够的数据来得出任何有力的结论。

There is a very small amount of data suggesting a causal, positive correlation between geopolitical instability (e.g. Iran) and Bitcoin. However, it’s not enough data to make any definitive conclusions. I am not an expert in these issues, so I just examine the data available. And we just don’t yet have enough data to make any strong conclusions.

问题八：就在几天前，芝商所比特币期权首日交易量就以219万美金比115万美金，超过了竞争对手Bakkt比特币期权的首日交易量。关于这件事，你怎么看？未来加密衍生品市场又会怎么走？
Just a few days ago, CME tops Bakkt’s reported bitcoin options volumes in one day by $2.19M vs. $1.15M. What do you think about that as the investor of Bakkt? How do you think about the future of crypto derivatives market?

答：200万美元和100万美元的金额其实很小，而且交易所很新，我们无法现在就下定论。不过好处是，竞争的发生正在推动市场前进。披露：Multicoin Capital投资于Bakkt

$2M and $1M USD are such small numbers, and the exchanges are so new, that it’s not really possible to draw any conclusions yet. The good thing is that there is competition, which is driving the market forwards.

Disclosure: Multicoin Capital is invested in Bakkt.

问题九：你怎么看ETH2.0？它会对Defi和整个加密行业有什么深远影响吗？

How do you see ETH 2.0? What is the far-reaching impact of ETH2.0 on the both Defi and the entire crypto industry?

答：我们对以太坊2.0真正了解的唯一一件事是，它无法在很近的将来适用于应用。除此之外，由于尚有很多不确定的变量，因此很难做出任何具体的判断。

关于对DeFi的影响，我最担心的是可组合性和对网络的影响。例如，在Uniswap中，将所有流动性集中在单个分片中是有很大的好处。但是，如果每个分片上都存在Uniswap池，则流动性将中断。如果在一个分片上有一个Uniswap池，则将消除分片的主要扩展优势，因为Uniswap仅具有单个分片的吞吐量。

The only thing we really know about Ethereum 2.0 is that it won’t be usable for applications anytime soon. Beyond that, it’s hard to render any specific judgements because there are too many variables that are still undetermined.

In terms of the impact on DeFi, the thing that I’m most concerned about is composability and network effects. For example, let’s consider Uniswap. In Uniswap, there are strong benefits to having all the liquidity in a single pool in a single shard. However, if Uniswap pools exist on each shard, then the liquidity is broken. If there is one Uniswap pool on 1 shard, then the primarily scaling benefit of sharding is removed as Uniswap only has the throughput of a single shard.

问题十：有人说：“2018 年是稳定币，2019 年是 DeFi，2020 年是 “加密银行” 把二者合起来做成产品。”你怎么看这句话？Multicoin接下来的一年会关注什么方向呢？

Someone said “If 2018 was the year of stablecoins, and 2019 was the year of DeFi I think that 2020 will be the year of “Crypto-banks” building consumer and institutional products that utilize both.” Do you have any thoughts on that? What will be Multicoin’s 2020 focus?

答：如今，在美国，中国和世界其他国家，有许多非常聪明能干的团队在建设加密银行。他们正在推动成熟加密货币生态系统的金融基础设施建设，这非常好。我们尚未投资任何纯加密货币银行。但是，我们认为大多数头部交易所都转变为加密银行，并且我们对此也写了相关文章：

英文： https://multicoin.capital/2019/10/29/exchanges-are-open-finance/

中文：https://multicoin.capital/zh/2019/10/29/exchanges-are-open-finance/

韩文： https://multicoin.capital/ko/2019/10/29/exchanges-are-open-finance/

There are a lot of very smart and capable teams building crypto banks today in the US, China, and other countries around the world. They are helping mature the financial infrastructure of the crypto ecosystem, which is very good. We have not yet invested in any pure crypto banks. However, we believe that most of the major exchanges are becoming crypto banks as well, and we have written about this (English, Chinese, Korean).

问题十二：Multicoin的2019预测很准。你能简短的分享一下2020的趋势嘛？

The 2019 prediction of Multicoin Capital turns out to be really good. Could you give us a brief listing that may trend in 2020?

答：对于2020年，我们最期待的几件事是：

交易所的扩展。无论从地域覆盖角度，还是所提供产品和服务的角度而言，交易所现在急着为所有人提供一切服务，它们通过自己的网络和影响力在庞大的全球市场中竞争。

行业应用。我们在2020年很期待一些应用。这些应用协议旨在解决特定行业的特定问题。最著名的案例包括Helium（无线网络），Arweave（存储）和Livepeer（视频转码）。我们密切关注这些应用，我们希望它们今年都会有所增长。

PS：我们是这三个项目的投资者。

For 2020, we are most excited about a few things:

The expansion of crypto exchanges, both in terms of geographic focus and in terms of products and services being offered. The exchanges are in a rush to be everything to everyone, and they are competing in a massive, global market with strong network effects.

Industry applications. There are a handful of applications that we are very excited about in 2020. These are protocols that are designed to solve very specific problems for specific industries. The most notable examples include Helium (wireless networks), Arweave (storage), and Livepeer (video transcoding). Each of these projects is still flying under the radar, but we expect them all to grow a lot this year. Disclosure: we’re investors in all three of these projects.

Onboarding more new users into crypto. There are more teams than ever making it easier to get into crypto, with better wallets, fiat-integrations, and browsers. This expands the market for all crypto applications.

Part 2: 拷问团提问

陈威廉 — 问题一：怎么看bakkt期货的上线对整个比特币衍生品市场的影响？

How do you see bakkt’s impact on the derivatives market?

答：在高水平上，加密货币市场在高监管和非监管之间分叉。在监管领域中最有力的竞争者是Bakkt和CME。我希望它们继续增长，但这很大程度上是以牺牲Coinbase为代价的。同时我认为Bakkt不会对亚洲交易所产生有意义的影响。

At a high level, the crypto markets are bifurcating between high regulated and unregulated. The strongest contender in the regulated sphere are Bakkt and CME. I expect them to keep on growing, largely at the expense of Coinbase. I do not think Bakkt will have a meaningful impact on the Asian exchanges.

陈威廉 — 问题二：怎么看待现在市场普通投资者普遍对公链项目不感兴趣了？solana太过复杂的设计是不是不容易让市场接受？

How do you see investors’ indifferent attitudes toward the public chain projects? Is Solona’s design too complicated for the market to accept?

答：市场理所当然地期待着一些新的和有用的应用程序能够在下一代链上推出。在团队筹集了所有资金，并花费了时间进行开发之后，人们理应有很高的期望。由于存在延迟，这是导致我们对下一代产业链抱有消极态度的主要原因。不过，我乐观地认为，随着Solana和Near等团队向市场展示其价值主张，市场情绪将在2020年期间有所改善。尤其是这两个团队现在都有强大的应用程序在上面构建，我预计这些应用程序将在2020年实现规模化。

至于“ Solana是否太复杂？”的答案是“否”。人们对以太坊启动时说的也是一样。 Solana和Near比Ethereum 1.0复杂得多。但是这两个系统都没有以太坊2.0复杂。

The market rightfully is expecting some novel and useful applications to launch on top of the next generation chains. After all the money the teams have raised, and all the time they’ve spent developing, people should have high expectations. Given the delays, that is the primary cause for the negativity we’re seeing towards next generation chains. However, I am optimistic that sentiment will improve over the course of 2020 as teams like Solana and Near demonstrate their value proposition to the market. Both of those teams in particular have strong applications building on them now, and I’m expecting those apps to scale in 2020.

In terms of “Is Solana (or Near) too complex?” — the answer is no. People said the same thing about Ethereum when it launched. Solana and Near are a lot more sophisticated than Ethereum 1.0. But both systems are fare less complex than Ethereum 2.0

巴韭特 — 问题一：你是否认为预言机会迎来爆发？它是很多DeFi应用必须的中间件，在您的文章《The Web3 Stack, 2019 Edition》中，对它的描述和项目貌似并不清晰

Do you see the upcoming popularities in the Oracle? As oracle is the MUST middleware which many Defi applications need. And I found that your previous view in “The Web3 Stack, 2019 Edition” is a little obscure, do you mind to elaborate it?

答：是的，预言机非常重要。我们正在密切跟踪几种新颖的寓言集，但我们尚未公开谈论它们。但是，我认为它们会在2020年变得更加引人注目。我们内部一直就预言机的内容进行头脑风暴以发表更多博客文章，但尚未着手。

Yes, oracles are extremely important. There are a few novel oracle approaches that we’re tracking closely, but we haven’t yet spoken about them publicly. However, I think they will become a lot more visible in 2020. We have been brainstorming a larger blog post on oracles internally, but haven’t decided on anything yet

巴韭特 — 问题二：你认为公链成功的要素有哪些？你比较看好哪些技术解决方案，例如分片、Layer2？

What do you think are the key elements that a successful public chain should have? And from your perspective, which technical solutions are the most promising ones? Sharding? Layer2? Or what else?

答：我认为下一代公共链一定会在某方面表现出“绝对最佳”。他们需要找到适合该功能的应用，并积极建立网络效应和社区。

我对Solana使用POH的方式进行layer1的扩容以及Near的新分片方法感到非常兴奋。但我不喜欢Polkadot的设计

I think next gen public chains need to bethe absolute bestat something. And they need to find applications that require that feature, and aggressively go after them to build network effects and a community.

I am most excited about Solana’s unique approach to scaling layer 1 with proof of history (POH), and Near’s new approach to sharding. I am not a fan of Polkadot’s design

Timmy Yang — 问题一：你认为PoS和Staking是大势所趋吗？如果不是，为什么？

Do you agree with that PoS and Staking are the general trends? Why or why not?

答：是的，我是POS坚定的信仰者，因此坚信。 POW不会扩展以支持上亿人员。 但POS会。
Yes, I am a firm believer in POS, and therefore in staking. POW is not going to scale to support 1B people. POS will.

Timmy Yang — 问题二：因为以太坊在sharding与plasma、PoS staking与保持PoW之间做出了错误的决定，你会认为以太坊2.0在市场上掉队了吗？

Since Ethereum made the wrong decision between sharding and plasma, PoS and PoW, would you think that Ethereum 2.0 has been left behind the market?

答：这个问题很难回答，我花了很多时间思考。我不太认为由于Eth 2.0的延误，以太坊是赢，抑或是输。

我希望在接下来的18个月中，将会有新的链推出，并且确实会吸引以太坊的注意力，它们会向世界（以及以太坊社区）展示高性能链的无限可能。我希望这能引起市场的兴奋。

This is a very difficult question, and one I have spent a lot of time thinking about. I don’t feel strongly that either Ethereum is the runaway winner, or that Ethereum is a guaranteed loser because of the Eth 2.0 delays.

What I am expecting over the next 18 months is that new chains launch, and they do draw meaningful attention away from Ethereum, and they show the world (and the Ethereum community) what’s possible with high performance chains. I hope that kindles excitement in the market.

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原文链接：https://news.huoxing24.com/newsdetail/20200120151920338206.html

编译者/作者：Beep币博

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