【12.10国外百咖说：顺便学英语】比特币通往10万美元之路

Bitcoin is heading towards the $100,000 mark, according to veteran commodity trader Peter Brandt, who shared his analysis in a newvideo clip. However, there is a scenario in which the oldest cryptocurrency turns bearish in the near-term.

根据资深大宗商品交易商彼得·勃兰特（Peter Brandt）的说法，比特币正朝着100,000美元大关迈进，他在新的视频剪辑中分享了他的分析结果。但是，在某些情况下，最原始的加密货币在短期内会转为看跌状态。

BITCOIN IS AT CROSSROAD AREA

比特币在十字路口

According to Brandt, Bitcoin is still moving within its historic bull trend, which has seen consecutive higher highs and higher lows.

根据布兰特（Brandt）的说法，比特币仍处于其历史牛市趋势之内，该趋势已经出现了连续的高点和低点。

While he believes that the cryptocurrency will stick to the bullish narrative in the coming years until it breaks $100,000, there are two main scenarios to expect before that happens. Unsurprisingly, one is bearish and the other is bullish.

虽然他认为加密货币在未来几年将坚持看涨的说法，直到突破100,000美元，但在此之前有两种主要情况可以期待。毫不奇怪，一个是看跌，另一个是看涨。

The price is currently at a crossroad zone and might go for one of the scenarios soon. Right now, it is trading very close to the lower boundary of a multi-year channel. If the price action decides to continue correcting, then we might see Bitcoin bottoming out at $5,324 by July 2020.

价格目前处于十字路口区域，可能很快会出现其中一种情况。目前，它的交易价格非常接近多年期交易渠道的下限。如果价格行动决定继续纠正，那么到2020年7月，我们可能会看到比特币触及5324美元的最低点。

The potential low is based on previous patterns, according to which Bitcoin has violated parabolic moves four times since 2011. Every downturn came with an 80%-plus correction and lasted 12 months from the peak to the low, according to Brandt’s analysis.

潜在的低点基于以前的模式，根据该模式，比特币自2011年以来已四次违反抛物线走势。根据布兰特的分析，每次低迷都会出现80％以上的修正，并且从峰值到低点持续了12个月。

Accordingly, the current correction will likely find strong support at $5,324 by this summer if Bitcoin takes the bearish route. This is because the recent high was reached in June, when the cryptocurrency rallied to over $13,000. Up until then, it’s anticipated that many crypto bulls will capitulate.

因此，如果比特币采取看跌路线，到今年夏天，当前的修正可能会在5,324美元处获得强劲支撑。这是因为最近的高点是在6月达到的，当时加密货币反弹至超过13,000美元。在此之前，预计许多加密货币牛市将投降。

This potential correction could likely scare even the most devoted Bitcoin maximalists and hodlers, Brandt says, citing his multi-year trading experience in other commodity markets. In fact, he believes that 90% of bulls who are active on social media will start capitulating sooner or later.

布兰特说，这种潜在的修正甚至可能会吓到最忠实的比特币最大化主义者和骗子，他引用了他在其他商品市场的多年交易经验。实际上，他认为，活跃于社交媒体上的公牛90％迟早会屈服。

THE “IMMEDIATELY BULLISH” SCENARIO

“立即看涨”情况

In the best-case scenario, the BTC price doesn’t break the lower boundary of the multi-year channel and bounces back to new highs. In fact, Brandt asserts that the new peaks could come as early as next year.

在最佳情况下，BTC价格不会突破多年通道的下限并反弹至新高。实际上，勃兰特（Brandt）断言，新高峰可能最早在明年出现。

Interestingly, many Bitcoin bulls expect the price to update the all-time high on the upcoming halving event, which is scheduled for the first half of 2020. This scenario is further supported byPlanB’s popular stock-to-flowmodel.

有趣的是，许多比特币多头预计在即将到来的减半事件（计划于2020年上半年）上，价格将刷新历史新高。PlanB流行的股票流通模型进一步支持了这种情况。

原文地址：https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-road-to-100k-peter-brandt-explains-the-when-and-how/

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编译者/作者：zachzorro

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